As the 2021 / 22 seed cotton harvest in China and the United States in the northern hemisphere comes to an end, more than half of the seed cotton sales in India and the cotton planting in Australia and Brazil in the southern hemisphere speed up in 2021, the focus of attention of cotton traders, speculators and cotton using enterprises begins to shift to the global cotton planting area, yield forecast and supply and demand changes in 2022.
Obviously, in 2021 and 2022, the cotton planting area of major cotton producing countries and cotton producing areas may increase significantly, and some cotton areas are expected to "blowout". If the weather is normal and the incidence of disasters is low, the global cotton supply and demand situation will reverse in 2022, and the probability of cotton price rebound under pressure and weakness is high.
From the current USDA and related reports, it can be summarized as follows:
1.In 2022, cotton planting expansion in major producing countries such as the United States, India, Pakistan and Central Asia has been "firmly established". According to foreign media, due to the high cotton price and smooth contracted sales in 2021 / 22, American farmers and international cotton merchants generally judge that the cotton planting area in the United States will resume growth in 2022. According to the prediction of a private organization in the United States, the cotton planting area in the United States will be 12.093 million mu in 2022, an increase of 8% over the same period, while people in other industries predict that the cotton planting area in the United States will expand by 15-25%; From September to November, the purchase price of seed cotton in India has been significantly higher than MSP (the price of seed cotton in Punjab was once higher than msp77%). In addition, the unit yield is expected to increase, and the income of cotton farmers is significantly higher than that of other food crops, soybeans and peanuts. Farmers' enthusiasm and confidence in cotton planting in 2022 have been fully mobilized.
2.The expansion of Australia and Brazil has entered the "ongoing period". High cotton price + rapid export stimulate the cotton planting area in Australia in 2021, which has been in full swing since September, and the main cotton producing areas have abundant rainfall recently. According to USDA data, the cotton planting area in Australia in 2021 / 22 is expected to be 600000 hectares, an increase of about 114% over the previous year, with a total output of about 1.15 million tons, a year-on-year increase of about 89%; The cotton planting area of Mato Grosso State in Brazil in 2021 / 22 may increase by 13.3% year-on-year, and the total cotton production in Brazil is expected to increase by 20% year-on-year.
3.This year, the planting area of Mali, Burkina Faso, Chad, Senegal and other non state countries increased significantly year-on-year, and the increase of per unit yield + high cotton price stimulated the expansion of planting in most African cotton producing areas in 2022;
4.There is little doubt about the restorative growth of cotton planting area in China in 2022. Not only the cotton planting income in Xinjiang cotton area is significantly higher than that of corn, wheat and other crops (coupled with factors such as machine harvesting and irrigation water shortage), but also the cotton planting advantages in the cotton areas of the Yellow River Basin and the Yangtze River Basin in the mainland are relatively obvious. Therefore, it is expected that the national cotton planting area will rebound strongly in 2022, and the output is more worthy of expectation.
Source: e cotton silo
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