Comprehensive Thai media recently reported that the research center of Thai agricultural and cooperative bank reported that after the government's deregulation and blockade measures and the increase in the number of vaccinated people in October 2021, the prices of jasmine rice, sugar, cassava, palm, South American white shrimp and beef showed an upward trend, while the prices of white rice, glutinous rice, feed corn, raw film and pork showed a downward trend.
The prediction results of the price trend of main agricultural products by the research center of Thai agricultural and cooperative bank in October 2021 show that the prices are rising:
1. The price of jasmine rice ranged from 10035 baht to 10090 baht per ton, an increase of 2.45-3.01% over the previous month, due to the deregulation and blockade measures taken in high-risk areas and the resumption of business in department stores and restaurants, so the demand for jasmine rice in restaurants increased.
2. The price of raw sugar in New York market was 19.31-19.49 cents per pound (about 13.98-14.11 baht per kilogram), up 0.70-1.60% from the previous month, mainly due to the upward trend of crude oil price in October, which had a positive impact on ethanol price, and encouraged Brazilian sugar mills to increase sugar cane production of ethyl alcohol and reduce white sugar production. In addition, the dry and hot weather in Brazil led to a decline in sugarcane production. There are still uncertain factors in India's sugar export. If the World Trade Organization (WTO) ruled that India's sugar export subsidy policy violates WTO regulations, it will affect India's sugar export and lead to the decline of global sugar production.
3. The price of cassava is 2.13-2.18 baht per kilogram, an increase of 0.47-2.83% over the previous month. Because it is at the beginning of 2021 / 2022 cassava production season, the number of cassava listed is limited and insufficient to meet the market demand. Most cassava listed in October 2021 are sent to cassava starch factory.
4. The palm price was 7.46-7.58 baht per kilogram, up 3.81-5.44% from the previous month, because the global vegetable oil storage was reduced due to tropical storms and insect pests in major producing countries. The epidemic situation made Malaysia, the world's second largest palm oil producer, face the problem of insufficient foreign labor, resulting in a shortage of agricultural product harvesting labor.
5. The price of Penaeus vannamei was 124.77-126.08 baht per kilogram, up 1.40-2.50% from the previous month. The reason was that the blockade measures were relaxed in October 2021, the restaurant resumed normal business, the domestic vaccination rate increased, the people's confidence in travel and dining out increased, and the demand for prawn consumption increased. It is expected that in October, shrimp exports may increase due to the weakening of the Thai baht and the improvement of the competitiveness of Thai shrimp. However, the jiuhuangzhai festival in October may be a factor causing the decline of shrimp prices.
6. The price of beef per kilogram is between 95.50-96.00 baht, an increase of 0.40-0.93% over the previous month. The deregulation of epidemic control measures has enabled more industries to resume services, and it is expected that the demand for beef consumption will increase. However, October coincides with the jiuhuangzhai Festival, which may affect the demand for beef and impact the sales price of live cattle for farmers.
Agricultural products with a downward trend in price include: 1. The price of rice rice with a humidity of 15% is between 7350-7430 baht per ton, a decrease of 0.10-1.17% compared with the previous month. The reason is that there is a labor shortage in rice planting in Vietnam due to the impact of strict control measures during the epidemic, so the global market tends to decline, which affects the price of rice in Thailand.
2. The price of long grain glutinous rice was 8010-8204 baht per ton, down 0.71-3.07% from the previous month, mainly due to the increased rainfall in Northeast China affected by typhoon gongsen, which is the main producing area of glutinous rice, so the output of glutinous rice increased.
3. The price of forage corn is between 7.95-8.08 baht per kilogram, which decreases by 0.60-2.20% compared with the previous month due to the continuous increase of output. At the same time, it is expected that the import of corn, wheat and soybean instead of corn will decrease by 1.04%, 1.13% and 1.67% respectively in December 2021. However, if enterprises purchase the products of registered farmers through price competition, the price increase of corn sold by farmers may exceed expectations.
4. The price of grade 3 raw film is between 48.00-48.50 baht. Although the Thai rubber price is affected by the depreciation of the Thai baht against the US dollar, as well as the continuous rainfall in southern Thailand and the shortage of rubber cutting workers, and the rubber production is reduced, the rubber price is 0.06-1.19% lower than that of the previous month, mainly due to the uncertain domestic economic situation of major trading partners and foreign countries, and the demand for rubber imports from Thailand has decreased.
5. The price of live pigs was between 64.73-66.11 baht per kilogram, down 1.37-3.43% from the previous month, mainly because some people did not eat meat during the jiuhuangzhai Festival. Therefore, the demand for pork consumption decreased.
Source: consul general Kong Jing's window of economy and trade
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