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Global sugar supply is expected to improve this year

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Foreign media news on October 7: a report released by broker stonex on October 5 said that the prospect of global sugar supply and demand in 2021 / 22 is expected to improve, because the increase of sugar production in Asia and Europe will help to partially offset the impact of another reduction of sugar production in Brazil.


Despite the improved supply and demand outlook, the demand in 2021 / 22 will still exceed the output for the third consecutive year, and the supply gap will reach 800000 tons, which means that the inventory will continue to decline. In contrast, the supply gap in 2020 / 21 is as high as 2.9 million tons.


In 2021 / 22, Thailand's sugar output is expected to increase to 10.5 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 39%; India's output will also reach 31.5 million tons, an increase of 2% over the previous year, because the weather in Asia is generally conducive to crop growth.


In India, if it were not for the processing plants to use sugarcane that could have produced 3 million tons of sugar to produce ethanol, India's sugar output could be higher. The report said that in India, the economic power to produce ethanol is very strong. Processing plants can earn $2 / ton more for ethanol than sugar.


Stonex first predicted that in 2021 / 22, the crushing capacity of sugarcane in South Central Brazil will reach 565 million tons, which is 6% higher than the scale reduced due to drought and frost this year. Brazil's sugar output will also reach 34.2 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2%; Ethanol production will reach 29.7 billion liters, a year-on-year increase of 5.5%. However, the increase of ethanol production in Brazil is mainly related to the increase of corn ethanol production. In 2022 / 23 (April to March), Brazil's corn ethanol production will reach 4 billion liters, a year-on-year increase of 12.8%.


In Europe, in 2021 / 22 (October to September of the next year), the sugar output of 27 EU countries and the UK is expected to reach 17.2 million tons, an increase of nearly 12% year-on-year, because the rainy weather in summer in Europe helps to improve the unit yield of sugar beet.


Source: Master Boyi